The Inside Straight

Dear Mr. President : Get Anthony Zinni !

Dear Mr. President:

The mid-term elections clearly indicate the American people want our troops out of Iraq : immediately,if not sooner !

We all know that is not as simple as your Opposition has suggested ; but - if we want to bring our troops home with banners flying and the cheers of a grateful people ringing in our ears , we are going to have to move fast ,and we're going to have to make the right moves. I know just the man for the job .

Mr. President, please get Retired Marine Corps General Anthony Zinni.

You've had your differences in the past, and I doubt he is high on your list of "favorite people" ; but he knows the Middle East ; he knows the movers and shakers in that world ; and he is well-respected. Given the situation, he might just turn out to be the best friend you could have !

He is, as you may recall, something of an expert on the type of warfare our troops have been facing in Iraq and Afghanistan . You may recall him as the man who embarrassed the Army and Navy prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom ,by showing- with a few squads of Marines-just how vulnerable a large force could be to a tiny,"inconsequential" one.

I know you don't want to "abandon" the Iraqi people - but we cannot become their nannies . It is high time to wean them of our presence .

They have their freedom now - the first they've seen in over 30 years - and it is up to them to make of it what they can - whether it meets our sometimes -hypercritical standards or not.

It's going to take a very tough, very knowledgeable negotiator to get this across to them , and,if you can persuade him to help, Anthony Zinni is just the man for the job !

President of Iran Says Best Way to End Lebanon Crisis is to Destroy Israel

Speaking at a conference in Malaysia, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was quoted by the Associated Press as follows:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday the solution to the Middle East crisis is to destroy Israel.

In a speech during an emergency meeting of Muslim leaders, Ahmadinejad also called for an immediate halt to fighting in Lebanon between Israel and the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah.

Israel "is an illegitimate regime, there is no legal basis for its existence," he said.

The Iranian President said he was opposed to outside peace-keeping forces being deployed to the region.

"Peace and security in Lebanon and its borders has to be preserved by the Lebanese government and people. Deployment of foreign forces is not acceptable in any shape unless it is just, based on U.N. rules and preserves the unity and territorial integrity of Lebanon," he said. (Translation: "Leave Hezbollah alone !" )

Meanwhile,hundreds of rockets were launched from Lebanon by Hezbollah against Israel .Today's attacks killed 7 Israeli civilians,and seriously injured 13 more.

Israeli President Olmert described the UNFIL (UN Forces In Lebanon) as "useless",and said any replacement force would have to be made up of "real soldiers"-not pensioners : adding some 15,000 battle-ready troops would be needed.

Comment:

Unless Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has an unexpected ace up his sleeve,it does not appear likely he will accomplish his stated goal of destroying Israel anytime soon.

He has promised a "big surprise" on August 22nd ,and I hate to spoil his fun,but his other statements, and his exchange of "expressions of solidarity" with "Duly-Elected-President-for-Life" Hugo Chavez lead me to believe the big surprise will be a monster increase in oil prices. Would you believe $ 200 per barrel ?

So far, the threat of an Iranian "nuke" has produced little but a yawn from the European Union. I have an idea "deployment" of the dreaded Oil Weapon would throw the EU into the sort of panic the world has not seen since WW II .

What would happen next is anybody's guess !

The Limits of "Proportionate Response"

There's a lot being said these days about "proportionate response" - this time, as it applies to Israel's punitive strike against Hezbollah, in Lebanon.

It's a very tricky question : What is "proportionate response" ?

Let's see: For about 20 years,Hezbollah terrorists - based in Lebanon, and funded by a mixture of Iranian and Syrian contributions, drug money,counterfeiting,and other crimes-have struck across the Israel/Lebanon border repeatedly: killing, kidnapping, and injuring Israelis , and using any reprisal as justification for further outrages.

Israeli response has tended to be swift,and spectacularly violent - some say because the aim is to discourage terrorism by making a bloody example of those who practice - and those who enable terrorism.

This policy has generated worldwide condemnation by those whose idea of reprisal is a stiffly-worded letter to The Times , or carefully phrased disapproval at the United Nations.

Those who condemn Israel are - by and large - pampered academics and bureaucrats, who are well removed from any terrorist activity. Their ox is not being gored ; and they can see little reason to be upset by a bombing or two ; a handful (or even a few thousand) missiles ; a few murders and kidnappings.One mustn't over-react , you know !

It is instructive to see how these "professional downplayers" react when something untoward happens to them !

Just for chuckles,encroach on one of their treasured perks: a reserved parking space - and watch the fireworks begin. (You will be lucky if Naval gunfire is not called in upon your vehicle !)

We've all seen pious,peace-loving nations explode with fury when their nation -or one of their "dependencies" (they don't call them colonies any more) is interfered with.Heavily armed troops are rushed to the scene,air strikes are launched, and-if neccessary-sea battles are fought. (There have been several such incidents in Africa and Eastern Europe in the last few years.) Terrorism at home is put down quickly and ruthlessly,and trouble makers are killed,imprisoned,or driven into exile.

Anyone who presumed to tell these folks their response was "disproportionate" would get raked over the coals and told - in no uncertain terms - to butt out .

Without commenting further on the Israeli/Lebanon conflict,I suspect the limits of proportional response are being stretched by the Israelis, and I doubt any lasting good will come of it.

At the same time, I find myself wondering what France or Germany or Italy or Spain or Britain or Russia or Portugal or any other resolute nation would do if they were in Israel's shoes...and doubting they would act differently.

UN Attempts to Rescue Hezbollah

On July 12,2006, Hezbollah forces -after a year of firing rockets into Israel from safe havens in Lebanon-crossed the border from Lebanon into Israel,kidnapped 2 Israeli soldiers,and killed 8 more.

Israel responded by attacking Hezbollah positions inside Lebanon...and the UN responded-the following day-by bringing the matter before the Security Council; where a veto by the United States brought that attempt to a halt.

If there was ever any question about the mind set of the UN,the lightning speed with which it was prepared to act against Israel-who was clearly not the aggressor in this matter dispelled all doubts.

Contrast UN action in Rwanda, where over 700,000 people died of starvation and mistreatment before the UN could bring itself to admit genocide was at work; or Darfur,where the UN is still dithering over what to do about the rape,forced re-settlement,starvation, and outright murder of the native population by an Islamic government; or Somalia,where a local variant of al-Qaeda has seized power.

Today,nine days into Israel's Lebanon incursion, Kofi Annan and his merry men are still trying to bail Hezbollah out-by professing distress over the situation of the people in Lebanon.

Eventually, the UN will prevail.A revitalized Hezbollah will rise from the ruins to trouble the world again...and Kofi Annan will be awarded yet another "peace prize".

Addendum: I ran across this angry article by Dave Kopel today-which details the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers a few years ago-with the assistance and connivance of UN "Peacekeepers" !

It's a long read, but worth pursuing .

Hezbollah's Rockets: a Dog in the Manger

I posted some questions on a forum that is frequented by people from the Middle East and/or sympathetic to the problems in that region.

1.Where did Hezbollah's arsenal of rockets come from ?

2. How did the rockets get there ?

3. If purchased,where did Hezbollah get the money ?

People actually living in Lebanon were reticent about answering - possibly out of fear of reprisal.Some gave vague answers: "Maybe they were homemade" ; "They just got there"; "They were purchased".

One-who turned out to be a pro-Palestinian student,living in Colorado, was a bit less guarded : saying the weapons had been smuggled across the border via the numerous mountain passes.

Another opined the rocketry had been handed over to Hezbollah by the Syrian Army,prior ro its withdrawal,and was probably about a year old.

A third correspondent said the weapons might have been purchased from "almost anywhere"; adding : "Hezbollah gets $10 to $20 million per month funding from Iran."

I'm an obvious outsider to the conflict, and suspect if I were to advance the theory that Hezbollah's rockets had been teleported in by an evil djiin, some of the Lebanese posters would have been happy to accept the idea.

It's plain to me the Lebanese people knew Hezbollah was operating in Lebanon; that they knew Hezbollah had been launching cross-border attacks against Israel; and that -despite occasional pro forma complaints about Hezbollah in Parliament-they were perfectly willing to let this dangerous situation go on indefinitely.

The Israelis-to everyone's consternation-were not.

If you harbor a pack of vicious dogs on your property (in the belief they will keep your property safe ?), and those dogs begin biting the neighbors,I think you can expect your neighbors will stop complaining, and start retaliating ; and that they will not be too concerned about your property or your well-being when they do so.

Hezbollah's Rockets

News reports from many sources indicate hundreds of rockets-fired by Hezbollah-have landed on Israel: killing a number of people.

Hezbollah boasts it has 10,000 Katyusha rockets ,and there have been reports,such as this 2001 essay, putting the number at a more realistic 5000.

Katyusha is a "generic" term for a wide variety of Russian-designed rockets: ranging from a short-range,tripod mounted 82mm unit that is essentially an oversized grenade launcher,to the "Thunder" series,which boasts a 1000lb+ high-explosive (or bio-chemical) warhead,and which has a range of over 100 miles.

For practical purposes, Hezbollah's rocket arsenal closely matches the "lower end" missiles used by Iran and Syria; and it is reported Iran may be the manufacturer; with Syria acting as the distributor;although,if one has the money-(and Hezbollah is reportedly heavily "endowed" by the Iranian government)-China, and a number of the former Russian republics will sell just about any weapon system to just about anyone.

Hezbollah shouldn't be able to amass such an arsenal,but acquired power during the Syrian occupation of Lebanon ,and was left in place after Syria's long-awaited withdrawal-some say,as an extension of Syrian power.

The Party of God (Hezbollah's official name) gained some degree of political control after the Syrians left, and holds 11 seats in Parliament,plus 2 important Cabinet posts.

Although the 6000 (+-) fighters of Hezbollah are vastly outnumbered by the 70,000 man Lebanese Army,the Army is dominated by Shi'ites, and , it is believed , might not be reliable in a conflict with the Hezbollah : a Shi'ite extremist group.

The Lebanese government would very much like to be rid of Hezbollah,and the organization is in low public esteem...but it is heavily armed,well organized,and apparently too dangerous to deal with.

As the Associated Press reports today, Hezbollah is in control of Lebanon,and the rockets will continue to fly for the forseeable future.