Saddam Hussein wanted nuclear weapons-in the worst way,and pursued that goal with a single-mindedness that was almost legendary.
After several attempts to obtain plutonium, Saddam finally persuaded the French to build him a heavy water reactor ; and, after a bit of palm greasing, they did so: dubbing the finished reactor "Osirak" (Osiris-god of the dead + Iraq). It was a "breeder" reactor: capable of producing plutonium - and it scared hell out of Iraq's neighbors.
On June 7,1981 , Israeli warplanes bombed the reactor - before it could be fueled-thus knocking it out of commission without subjecting the Iraqis to a radioactive disaster.
The world-as might be expected-screamed bloody murder about this "vicious Zionist attack" -while privately heaving a sigh of relief : The threat of a nuclear Iraq had been destroyed...or so it seemed.
The Iraqis went right back into the bomb business : salvaging what they could out of Osirak,and setting up new projects. This time, they decided to start enriching uranium. (Enriched uranium works just as well as plutonium.It is more tedious to isolate isotopic U-235, but it is a somewhat less hellacious material to work with than its extremely poisonous,highly flammable alternative !)
By the time Desert Storm rolled around, the Iraqis were using several state-of-the-art enrichment methods, and had set up a fairly massive nuclear development program.
On January 16,1991, US warplanes bombed carefully selected Iraqi nuclear research facilities: prompting a rather sniffy denial in the March, 1991 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists that Iraq was anywhere near developing nuclear weapons.
George H.W. Bush was the president ,and , with his popularity waning , it probably seemed a good time to show a little solidarity with the "beleaguered Iraqis".
The Bulletin took great joy in claiming UN sanctions had already done more damage to Saddam's nuclear program than any bombing raids could.
In August,1991,however, the Federation of American Scientists published a list of nuclear research facilities that were still going strong.
Which estimate was right ? By way of an answer, let's go to 7/06/94 , when Saddam Hussein (Man #1 on the transcript) has a heart-to-heart chat with 6 of his nuclear scientists.
(In case you're wondering, this is part of the massive Iraqi Intelligence Service document trove. The regime kept records of almost everything - often in mind-numbing detail.)
One of the scientists says the UNSCOM inspections have slowed down the scale of his work: he has to do everything in a small lab, instead of a big research facility-but he's coping rather nicely, thank you !
He's doing a lot of plasma research. Saddam isn't quite sure what he's talking about-and winds up getting the 50 cent lecture. Finally he captures the Great Man's undivided attention by explaining how useful plasma research is in making atomic and hydrogen bombs. His project gets the green light !
Nuclear research is supposedly being handled by the Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission, which is studying all manner of good things - such as how to refine uranium ore - ( the infamous yellowcake)-and produce uranium hexaflouride at the same time.At least, that's what these captured documents appear to be about. (Note: the pdf imagery is shaky and unstable-perhaps deliberately so.)
The Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission seems to have been involved in a wide range of enterprises,and to have received very substantial funding right up to the bitter end.
For example, between 2001 and 2003 , IAEC awarded contracts with a (rough) total value of 557 million U$.
The contracts were ostensibly for "electricty generating plants" - which should raise a few eyebrows in and of itself.( When US forces entered Iraq in 2003, they found an antiquated,neglected, and barely functional electrical generating infrastructure ; and restoring power was a major undertaking.)
So what was IAEA spending its money on ? The following is from Joseph Shahada (Veritas),who has been translating many of the Iraqi documents as an act of love for the United States - his adopted country.
Beginning of the translation of ISGQ-2005-00023243
In the name of God the most Merciful the most compassionate
The Republic of Iraq
The Atomic Energy Organization
The Chairmanship of the Chemistry and Materials and Department
Date: 19/9/2002
Secret
To the Respected Brother Dr. Abdel Satar Al Taa’i.
Subject: List of the primary materials.
In regards to the phone conversation, the local material from the list sent according to our letter 215 on 9/11 were brought back so please replace with the attached list.
With regards
Signature
Dr. Hisham Mahmod Ahmad
Chairman of The Chemistry and Materials department.
Secret.
3. Material: Thionyl Chloride, Description: GPR. Quantity: 1 KG.
10. Material: Phosphorus Oxycholride: Description: GPR. Quantity: 3.5 Liter
30. Material:Thiophosphoryl Chloride. Description: 97%. Quantity: 1 Liter.
42. Phosphorus Pentasulfide. Description: 99%. Quantity: 5,500 KG.
Shahada notes the last item mentioned is a precursor for nerve gas , and that Iraq was forbidden to manufacture or import it. What,you may ask,has this item to do with the "peaceful use of atomic energy" ?
I've browsed through the IAEC contract summaries. (You can too: here and here. )
The translator noted at least 4 contracts appeared to be pure fiction. They were payable in Euros: E 1,500,00, E 75,000, E 75,000, and E 213,000.
I noticed 3 contracts payable in US Dollars : $ 430,700 ,$ 129,000, and $ 86,000.
(The thought occurs the Euro and Dollar contracts might have been bribes - but everyone knows UNSCOM inspectors are incorruptible !)
One of the more amusing ones was a contract for 591,000 Dinars -(then worth 33 cents;now worth 67 cents) - for "fixing door locks and painting a door". There was also an entry of 525,000 Dinars for :"bleaching the Fish and Seaweed Laboratory Building".
If you're the skeptical sort, you may have reached the (politically incorrect) conclusion there was a whole lot of sub-rosa activity going on the Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission ; and you can probably understand why the United States did a lot of highly strategic bombing , and -once the shooting had died down a bit-made a special point of airlifting several tons of partially enriched uranium out of Iraq altogether.
The UN squawked about that particular bit of "unilateralism" (perhaps a bit too much *) ; but at least it will be a while before Iraq can present a nuclear threat to its neighbors.
* There have been persistent rumors about UN personnel and retired diplomats being in the "strategic metals" business. Yellowcake is considered "peaceful use" material and is not accounted for. If nobody knows for sure how much yellowcake is in a country,nobody can say for sure how much of it has been stolen and sold elsewhere. (But we know such rumors are false : right ? Right ??)
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